In a surprising turn of events, Vice President Kamala Harris has edged ahead of Donald Trump for the first time in the latest DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners poll. The poll comes just 49 days before the election, and the race remains extremely tight. However, Harris’s strong debate performance last week has given her a crucial boost, bringing new energy to her campaign.
A Narrow Lead in a Tight Race
The poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters, shows Harris with a slim one-point lead over Trump. She is currently favored by 43% of voters, an increase of two points since the previous poll in mid-August, while Trump’s support has dropped to 42%. Although the margin is razor-thin, it’s a significant moment for Harris, who entered the race in July and has been gaining momentum ever since.
Hispanic Voters Shift Away from Trump
One of the most notable changes in the polling data is Trump’s sharp decline in support among Hispanic voters—a key demographic in several battleground states. Trump has lost a staggering 17 points in this group, erasing his earlier advantage. His support among Black voters has also dropped dramatically, from 13% to just 6%.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners, attributes this shift to Harris’s debate performance and her appeal to several key voter groups.
“First, Independents—she now leads Trump among them by four points,” Johnson explained. “Second, she’s closed the gap among 50 to 64-year-olds, reducing a 16-point deficit to just two points. And third, Hispanic voters have moved sharply away from Trump in the last few weeks, likely in response to the debate.”
The Debate That Changed the Race
Harris’s debate strategy appears to have paid off, especially as she sought to challenge Trump head-on. During the ABC News debate, Harris wasted no time in mocking Trump’s rallies and went on to ridicule an outlandish claim that illegal immigrants were killing and eating pets—an internet rumor Trump repeated during the exchange. The former president, visibly irritated, was drawn into defending the claim, which may have contributed to his shaky performance.
Harris’s performance didn’t just resonate with political commentators—it struck a chord with voters. One 75-year-old Republican male, who had previously voted for Trump, said the debate had changed his perspective. “The more I listen to her and what took place in the debate makes me more positive about her,” he said, explaining his shift toward supporting Harris this November.
Trump Defends Controversial Claims and Allies
In the wake of the debate, Trump has had to contend with both the fallout from his pet-eating claims and the resurfacing of his close association with right-wing conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer, who accompanied him to 9/11 memorials last week. Loomer has previously made headlines for claiming the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an inside job, a claim that critics argue undermines Trump’s standing with moderate voters.
To complicate matters further, Trump’s campaign was briefly overshadowed by a security incident at his West Palm Beach golf course, where an armed man was arrested in an apparent assassination attempt. The event, however, was quickly pushed out of the headlines as the race between Harris and Trump remained front and center.
The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for Harris
While Harris can take pride in her gains among Independents, 50 to 64-year-olds, and Hispanic voters, the road to victory is far from certain. Johnson warns that the Electoral College could still tilt the race in Trump’s favor, despite Harris’s slight national lead. “She would need to dominate the national vote in order to secure the White House,” Johnson pointed out.
Harris also faces the challenge of relying heavily on younger voters, who, historically, have lower turnout rates on Election Day. “Even with these positive numbers, Trump could still win the Electoral College and head back to the White House,” Johnson cautioned.
As the race enters its final stretch, both candidates will need to keep the pressure on. Harris may have momentum, but with just 49 days to go, anything can still happen in one of the most fiercely contested elections in recent memory.
